It’s been eight years since James Dunworth of the Ashtray Blog released his first “Vape Predictions.” The annual blog post started with just Dunworth making his own predictions but has grown into some of the leading players in the industry contributing.
This year, Dunworth asks 18 experts their views on the vaping industry outlook for 2021. The varied group of participants includes scientists, analysts, independent vaping media and business leaders. The outlook isn’t great. It’s also not the worst case scenario. AS could be expected, many of the experts see more regulation, taxation, flavor bans and bad science.
For the European Union, Clive Bates, who writes his own blog The Counterfactual and is the former director of Action on Smoking and Health said he believes the region will start to see more onerous regulations in 2021. “I’d be worried about broad flavours bans, ingredients regulation, plain packaging, restrictions on online sales and marketing,” he stated. “Also, possibly more onerous approval processes.”
In the U.S., the world’s largest vaping market, all eyes are on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) premarket tobacco product applications (PMTA) that were due to the regulatory agency on Sept. 9. Niki Zhang, marketing director, for Smoore Technology, parent to the Vaporesso brand, states that the PMTAs will impact local manufacturers in terms of their product range, sales, and marketing.
“The FDA requires vape manufacturers to implement thorough scientific studies to prove their products are appropriate for the protection of public health, bringing vapers safer products and a better vaping experience,” states Zhang. “In the short term, only a few vape manufacturers can meet the scientific requirements, complexities, and expenses of the PMTA, which means there will be fewer products available. But, in the long run, vape manufacturers will be able to bring more quality and effective products into the market.”
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